The Greenhouse Effect

Carbon Cycle
Photosynthesis plays a crucial role in the carbon cycle. Carbon continuously circulates in the earth’s ecosystem. In the atmosphere, it exists as colorless, odorless carbon dioxide gas, which is used by plants in the process of photosynthesis. Animals acquire the carbon stored in plant tissue when they eat and exhale carbon dioxide as a by-product of metabolism. Although some carbon is removed from circulation temporarily as coal, petroleum, fossil fuels, gas, and limestone deposits, cellular respiration and photosynthesis balance to keep the amount of atmospheric carbon relatively stable. Industrialization, however, has contributed additional carbon dioxide to the environment.

The energy that lights and warms Earth comes from the Sun. Most of the energy that floods onto our planet is short-wave radiation, including visible light. When this energy strikes the surface of Earth, the energy changes from light to heat and warms Earth. Earth’s surface, in turn, releases some of this heat as long-wave infrared radiation.

Much of this long-wave infrared radiation makes it all the way back out to space, but a portion remains trapped in Earth’s atmosphere. Certain gases in the atmosphere, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane, provide the trap. Absorbing and reflecting infrared waves radiated by Earth, these gases conserve heat as the glass in a greenhouse does and are thus known as greenhouse gases. As the concentration of these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increases, more heat energy remains trapped below. All life on Earth relies on this greenhouse effect—without it, the planet would be colder by about 33 Celsius degrees (59 Fahrenheit degrees), and ice would cover Earth from pole to pole. However, a growing excess of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere threatens to tip the balance in the other direction—toward continual warming.

Types of Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases occur naturally in the environment and also result from human activities. By far the most abundant greenhouse gas is water vapor, which reaches the atmosphere through evaporation from oceans, lakes, and rivers.

Carbon dioxide is the next most abundant greenhouse gas. It flows into the atmosphere from many natural processes, such as volcanic eruptions; the respiration of animals, which breathe in oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide; and the burning or decay of organic matter, such as plants. Carbon dioxide leaves the atmosphere when it is absorbed into ocean water and through the photosynthesis of plants, especially trees. Photosynthesis breaks up carbon dioxide, releasing oxygen into the atmosphere and incorporating the carbon into new plant tissue.

Humans escalate the amount of carbon dioxide released to the atmosphere when they burn fossil fuels, solid wastes, and wood and wood products to heat buildings, drive vehicles, and generate electricity. At the same time, the number of trees available to absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis has been greatly reduced by deforestation, the long-term destruction of forests by indiscriminate cutting of trees for lumber or to clear land for agricultural activities.

Ultimately, the oceans and other natural processes absorb excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, human activities have caused carbon dioxide to be released to the atmosphere at rates much faster than that at which Earth’s natural processes can cycle this gas.

Methane is an even more effective insulator, trapping over 20 times more heat than does the same amount of carbon dioxide. Methane is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil. Methane also comes from rotting organic waste in landfills, and it is released from certain animals, especially cows, as a byproduct of digestion.

Nitrous oxide is a powerful insulating gas released primarily by burning fossil fuels and by plowing farm soils. Nitrous oxide traps about 300 times more heat than does the same amount of carbon dioxide. The concentration of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere has increased 17 percent over preindustrial levels.

In addition, greenhouse gases are produced in many manufacturing processes. Perfluorinated compounds result from the smelting of aluminum. Hydrofluorocarbons form during the manufacture of many products, including the foams used in insulation, furniture, and car seats. Refrigerators built in some developing nations still use chlorofluorocarbons as coolants. In addition to their ability to retain atmospheric heat, some of these synthetic chemicals also destroy Earth’s high-altitude ozone layer, the protective layer of gases that shields Earth from damaging ultraviolet radiation. For most of the 20th century these chemicals have been accumulating in the atmosphere at unprecedented rates.

Measuring Global Warming

GOES Weather Satellite
Broadcasters use data from meteorological satellites to predict weather and to broadcast storm warnings when necessary. Satellites such as the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) collect meteorological and infrared information about the atmosphere and the ocean. A camera on the GOES is continuously pointed at Earth, broadcasting satellite images of cloud patterns both day and night. Here, the GOES-C satellite is being encapsulated inside its payload fairing aboard a Delta rocket.

As early as 1896 scientists suggested that burning fossil fuels might change the composition of the atmosphere and that an increase in global average temperature might result. The first part of this hypothesis was confirmed in 1957, when researchers working in the global research program called the International Geophysical Year sampled the atmosphere from the top of the Hawaiian volcano Mauna Loa. Their instruments indicated that carbon dioxide concentration was indeed rising. Since then, the composition of the atmosphere has been carefully tracked. The data collected show undeniably that the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are increasing.

Scientists have long suspected that the global climate, the long-term average pattern of temperature, was also growing warmer, but they were unable to provide conclusive proof. Temperatures vary widely all the time and from place to place. It takes many years of climate observations to establish a trend. Records going back to the late 1800s did seem to show a warming trend, but these statistics were spotty and untrustworthy. Early weather stations often were located near cities, where temperature measurements were affected by the heat emitted from buildings and vehicles and stored by building materials and pavements. Since 1957, however, data have been gathered from more reliable weather stations, located far away from cities, and from satellites. These data have provided new, more accurate measurements, especially for the 70 percent of the planetary surface that is ocean water. These more accurate records indicate that a surface warming trend exists and that, moreover, it has become more pronounced. Looking back from the end of the 20th century, records show that the ten warmest years of the century all occurred after 1980, and the three hottest years occurred after 1990, with 1998 being the warmest year of all.

Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing. Temperatures are rising. But does the gas increase necessarily cause the warming, and will these two phenomena continue to occur together? In 1988 the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization established a panel of 200 leading scientists to consider the evidence. In its Third Assessment Report, released in 2001, this Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global air temperature had increased 0.6 Celsius degree (1 Fahrenheit degree) since 1861. The panel agreed that the warming was caused primarily by human activities that add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The IPCC predicted in 2001 that the average global temperature would rise by another 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees (2.5 to 10.4 Fahrenheit degrees) by the year 2100.

The IPCC panel cautioned that even if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere ceased growing by the year 2100, the climate would continue to warm for a period after that as a result of past emissions. Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for a century or more before nature can dispose of it. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, experts predict that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere could rise to more than three times preindustrial levels early in the 22nd century, resulting in dramatic climate changes. Large climate changes of the type predicted are not unprecedented; indeed, they have occurred many times in the history of Earth. However, human beings would face this latest climate swing with a huge population at risk.

Effects of Global Warming: Weather

Scientists use elaborate computer models of temperature, precipitation patterns, and atmosphere circulation to study global warming. Based on these models, scientists have made several predictions about how global warming will affect weather, sea levels, coastlines, agriculture, wildlife, and human health.

A. Weather

Scientists predict that during global warming, the northern regions of the Northern Hemisphere will heat up more than other areas of the planet, northern and mountain glaciers will shrink, and less ice will float on northern oceans. Regions that now experience light winter snows may receive no snow at all. In temperate mountains, snowlines will be higher and snowpacks will melt earlier. Growing seasons will be longer in some areas. Winter and nighttime temperatures will tend to rise more than summer and daytime ones.

The warmed world will be generally more humid as a result of more water evaporating from the oceans. Scientists are not sure whether a more humid atmosphere will encourage or discourage further warming. On the one hand, water vapor is a greenhouse gas, and its increased presence should add to the insulating effect. On the other hand, more vapor in the atmosphere will produce more clouds, which reflect sunlight back into space, which should slow the warming process (see Water Cycle).

Greater humidity will increase rainfall, on average, about 1 percent for each Fahrenheit degree of warming. (Rainfall over the continents has already increased by about 1 percent in the last 100 years.) Storms are expected to be more frequent and more intense. However, water will also evaporate more rapidly from soil, causing it to dry out faster between rains. Some regions might actually become drier than before. Winds will blow harder and perhaps in different patterns. Hurricanes, which gain their force from the evaporation of water, are likely to be more severe. Against the background of warming, some very cold periods will still occur. Weather patterns are expected to be less predictable and more extreme.

B. Sea Levels
C. Agriculture
D. Animals and Plants
E. Human Health

Effects of Global Warming: Sea Levels

As the atmosphere warms, the surface layer of the ocean warms as well, expanding in volume and thus raising sea level. Warming will also melt much glacier ice, especially around Greenland, further swelling the sea. Sea levels worldwide rose 10 to 25 cm (4 to 10 in) during the 20th century, and IPCC scientists predict a further rise of 9 to 88 cm (4 to 35 in) in the 21st century.

Sea-level changes will complicate life in many coastal regions. A 100-cm (40-in) rise could submerge 6 percent of The Netherlands, 17.5 percent of Bangladesh, and most or all of many islands. Erosion of cliffs, beaches, and dunes will increase. Storm surges, in which winds locally pile up water and raise the sea, will become more frequent and damaging. As the sea invades the mouths of rivers, flooding from runoff will also increase upstream. Wealthier countries will spend huge amounts of money to protect their shorelines, while poor countries may simply evacuate low-lying coastal regions.

Effects of Global Warming: Agriculture

A warmed globe will probably produce as much food as before, but not necessarily in the same places. Southern Canada, for example, may benefit from more rainfall and a longer growing season. At the same time, the semiarid tropical farmlands in some parts of Africa may become further impoverished. Desert farm regions that bring in irrigation water from distant mountains may suffer if the winter snowpack, which functions as a natural reservoir, melts before the peak growing months. Crops and woodlands may also be afflicted by more insects and plant diseases.

Effects of Global Warming: Animals and Plants

Animals and plants will find it difficult to escape from or adjust to the effects of warming because humans occupy so much land. Under global warming, animals will tend to migrate toward the poles and up mountainsides toward higher elevations, and plants will shift their ranges, seeking new areas as old habitats grow too warm. In many places, however, human development will prevent this shift. Species that find cities or farmlands blocking their way north or south may die out. Some types of forests, unable to propagate toward the poles fast enough, may disappear.